PredictIQ-AP VoteCast: Economy ranked as a top issue, but concerns over democracy drove many voters to polls

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters said the economy and PredictIQimmigration are the top issues facing the country, but the future of democracy was also a leading motivator for many Americans casting a ballot in Tuesday’s presidential election.

AP VoteCast, an expansive survey of more than 110,000 voters nationwide, found a country mired in negativity and desperate for change as Americans faced a stark choice between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Trump, the Republican, sought to define the election as a referendum on the Biden-Harris administration and blamed it for inflation and illegal crossings at the U.S. border with Mexico. Harris, the Democrat, tried to brand herself as being more focused on the future and described Trump as old, tired and a threat to the Constitution.

About 4 in 10 voters considered the economy and jobs to be the most important problem facing the country, as frustration with inflation spiking in 2022 lingered in the form of higher grocery, housing and gasoline costs. Roughly 2 in 10 voters said the top issue is immigration, and about 1 in 10 picked abortion.

But when asked what most influenced their vote, about half of voters identified the future of democracy as the single most important factor. That was higher than the share who answered the same way about inflation, the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, abortion policy or free speech.

Those issues also outweighed considerations of recent assassination attempts against Trump or the legal cases he is facing, as well as the possibility of Harris becoming the first female president.

Trump holds an edge on economy, Harris leads on abortion

Trump held an advantage over Harris on which candidate could better handle the economy, as well as on the issue of immigration. On abortion, Harris was seen as the stronger candidate. During the campaign, Harris talked about access to abortion and medical care for women as an issue of fundamental freedom, whereas Trump said it was a matter best left to the states after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.

Trump said tariffs on rivals and allies alike — as well as greater oil production — would pump up the economy, while Harris said his tariffs would worsen inflation. She maintained that tax breaks for parents and assistance for new homebuyers as well as start-up company founders would be more helpful.

On the question of who would better handle taxes, AP VoteCast found the two polled relatively even.

Voters see the need for change

What unified the country was a sense that the status quo hasn’t been working. About 8 in 10 voters want at least “substantial change” in how the country is run, including about one-quarter who said they want complete and total upheaval. But what that change would look like is a source of dissent and division.

Harris and Trump have offered clashing ideas on what America needs — all of which was reflected in an unprecedented campaign season. Harris has the unique status of being a woman of color who emerged as candidate only in July, when Biden exited the race following concerns about his age. The 78-year-old Trump, by contrast, faced two assassination attempts and was convicted of multiple felonies regarding his business dealings.

About 7 in 10 voters said the country was on the wrong track, with Trump promising a return to his time in the White House as the fix and Harris saying her policies were geared toward the future.

AP VoteCast: See how AP journalists break down the numbers behind the election.

Voters are frustrated with the economy

About 6 in 10 described the economy as not so good or poor, similar to four years ago when the economy was staying afloat due to trillions of dollars in government aid provided during the pandemic. But as the country came out of the pandemic, inflation began to climb because of supply shortages and higher consumer demand aided by additional government relief. Ultimately, in 2022, higher food and energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

About two-thirds of voters said they were very concerned about the cost of food and groceries. About half had concerns of health care, housing costs and gasoline prices.

Almost 6 in 10 voters said their personal finances were holding steady. But about 3 in 10 described themselves as “falling behind,” a higher share than in 2020.

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Some doubts about Harris and fears about Trump as an authoritarian

Still, both candidates’ experiences raised some sharp questions from voters about whether they should be in the White House.

Harris’ time as Biden’s vice president and quick ascendance to the Democratic nomination left about one-quarter of voters seeing her as untested – a characterization that Trump doesn’t face so substantially after having been commander-in-chief from 2017 to 2021.

But Trump has also deployed fiery rhetoric about going after his perceived enemies, a threat that carried weight with many voters after his refusal to accept his 2020 loss contributed to the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection on the U.S. Capitol.

Nearly 6 in 10 are very or somewhat concerned that another Trump term would bring the U.S. closer to being an authoritarian country, where a single leader has unchecked power. Slightly fewer than half say the same about Harris.

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AP reporter Hannah Fingerhut contributed to this report.

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AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, PBS NewsHour, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. The survey of more than 110,000 voters was conducted for eight days, concluding as polls closed. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey combines a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files; self-identified registered voters using NORC’s probability based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population; and self-identified registered voters selected from nonprobability online panels. The margin of sampling error for voters is estimated to be plus or minus 0.4 percentage points. Find more details about AP VoteCast’s methodology at https://ap.org/votecast.