Current:Home > InvestExperts predict "extremely active" Atlantic hurricane season -BeyondWealth Learning
Experts predict "extremely active" Atlantic hurricane season
View
Date:2025-04-14 00:04:25
Get ready to batten down the hatches. Experts have predicted an "extremely active" 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
"We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," researchers from the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project said in a 44-page report released on Thursday.
Activity in the 2024 season will rise considerably above the 1991-2020 average, with researchers predicting 23 named storms and 115 named storm days. Previous years had an average of 14.4 storm days and 69.4 named storm days.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts June 1 and finishes November 30, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October. Hurricane activity tends to peak in mid-September, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Warm sea surface temperatures combined with a warm tropical Atlantic — all intensified by La Niña conditions — set high expectations for an extremely active period. La Niña conditions, which are set to arrive this summer, decrease vertical wind shear and increase favorable conditions for hurricanes.
"The probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall is estimated to be well above its long-period average," researchers said, with the probability in some areas jumping more than 10% to almost 20%.
Researchers predicted a 62% chance of a Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall on the continental U.S. coastline, an increase from the average prediction of 43%.
Along the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, the probability jumped to 34% from 21% – which was the average likelihood from 1880-2020. Along the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle, the increase was higher. Researchers predicted a 42% probability in that area, up from an average of 27% in previous years.
Seasonal forecast predictions are based on statistical and dynamical models that researchers said "can fail in some years."
This year's hurricane season will follow 2023, which globally was the warmest year on record. Last year's water temperatures were also high, and it was a more active hurricane system than average.
- In:
- El Nino
- Hurricane
- Atlantic Ocean
Cara Tabachnick is a news editor and journalist at CBSNews.com. Cara began her career on the crime beat at Newsday. She has written for Marie Claire, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. She reports on justice and human rights issues. Contact her at cara.tabachnick@cbsinteractive.com
veryGood! (45)
Related
- Stamford Road collision sends motorcyclist flying; driver arrested
- Walmart offers to pay $3.1 billion to settle opioid lawsuits
- Kendall Roy's Penthouse on Succession Is Just as Grand (and Expensive) as You'd Imagine
- Killer Proteins: The Science Of Prions
- Jamie Foxx gets stitches after a glass is thrown at him during dinner in Beverly Hills
- Coastal Real Estate Worth Billions at Risk of Chronic Flooding as Sea Level Rises
- Pruitt’s Anti-Climate Agenda Is Facing New Challenge From Science Advisers
- Shaquil Barrett's Wife Jordanna Gets Tattoo Honoring Late Daughter After Her Tragic Drowning Death
- Scoot flight from Singapore to Wuhan turns back after 'technical issue' detected
- Too many Black babies are dying. Birth workers in Kansas fight to keep them alive
Ranking
- Justice Department, Louisville reach deal after probe prompted by Breonna Taylor killing
- $45 million misconduct settlement for man paralyzed in police van largest in nation's history, lawyers say
- More older Americans become homeless as inflation rises and housing costs spike
- Médicos y defensores denuncian un aumento de la desinformación sobre el aborto
- Toyota to invest $922 million to build a new paint facility at its Kentucky complex
- Today’s Climate: August 7-8, 2010
- The Fate of Vanderpump Rules and More Bravo Series Revealed
- Teen Activists Worldwide Prepare to Strike for Climate, Led by Greta Thunberg
Recommendation
Selena Gomez engaged to Benny Blanco after 1 year together: 'Forever begins now'
'Running While Black' tells a new story about who belongs in the sport
An art exhibit on the National Mall honors health care workers who died of COVID
Destructive Flood Risk in U.S. West Could Triple if Climate Change Left Unchecked
Which apps offer encrypted messaging? How to switch and what to know after feds’ warning
States differ on how best to spend $26B from settlement in opioid cases
The chase is on: Regulators are slowly cracking down on vapes aimed at teens
Vanderpump Rules' Ariana Shared Heartbreaking Sex Confession With Raquel Amid Tom Affair